Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.453419 1.507280 1.562882 1.624743 1.691859 1.762715 1.843495
2025-12-14 1.375878 1.446851 1.522296 1.608968 1.706434 1.813446 1.940951
2025-12-21 1.316028 1.397831 1.486668 1.591205 1.712066 1.848993 2.018250
2025-12-28 1.285252 1.377462 1.479561 1.602413 1.748254 1.918649 2.137304
2026-01-04 1.264381 1.366073 1.480670 1.621441 1.792800 1.999126 2.274120
2026-01-11 1.233403 1.340909 1.463725 1.617076 1.807571 2.042732 2.366509
2026-01-18 1.209324 1.322291 1.452996 1.618736 1.828670 2.094272 2.472224
2026-01-25 1.173924 1.288646 1.422552 1.594191 1.814629 2.098524 2.512544
2026-02-01 1.149917 1.267581 1.406212 1.585988 1.820397 2.128320 2.590125
2026-02-08 1.126734 1.246577 1.388944 1.575482 1.822046 2.151863 2.659686
2026-02-15 1.104997 1.226543 1.372008 1.564406 1.821925 2.172286 2.725497
2026-02-22 1.091109 1.215589 1.365813 1.566641 1.839350 2.217818 2.833750
2026-03-01 1.062658 1.186342 1.336310 1.538019 1.814207 2.201963 2.844489
2026-03-08 1.044908 1.169894 1.322444 1.529389 1.816108 2.225417 2.921861
2026-03-15 1.026412 1.151996 1.306137 1.516780 1.811616 2.238713 2.982915
2026-03-22 1.019822 1.148811 1.308477 1.529123 1.842856 2.307869 3.149812
2026-03-29 1.016299 1.149311 1.315447 1.547815 1.883947 2.395095 3.362687
2026-04-05 1.004037 1.138295 1.306967 1.544742 1.892628 2.430867 3.481852
2026-04-12 0.994466 1.130464 1.302392 1.546819 1.908900 2.479929 3.635168
2026-04-19 0.975797 1.110488 1.281210 1.524795 1.887542 2.464369 3.649754
2026-04-26 0.963655 1.098728 1.270689 1.517526 1.888418 2.486589 3.749838
2026-05-03 0.951172 1.086269 1.258921 1.508064 1.885396 2.501699 3.836199
2026-05-10 0.938957 1.073924 1.247018 1.498022 1.880975 2.513928 3.917760